Two weeks before the VRS cut-off, eleven European teams are as good as qualified for PGL Major Singapore in the eyes of VRS analyst Udknud. NIP joined them with a third title in under three weeks, while NAVI, FaZe, Nemiga and a pack of tier-two teams are still fighting for the last places.
The invites for PGL Major Singapore are handed out on Monday 2 November, based on Valve’s Regional Standings (VRS). There are no qualifiers: all 32 teams are invited from the regional rankings. No Major has had a shorter gap between the cut-off and the first match. The tournament runs from 24 November to 13 December with $1,250,000 on the line, and for the first time at a Major there will be a third-place decider before the best-of-five grand final.
Before that, PGL Masters Bucharest starts on Saturday with 16 teams. For several of them, it is the last big chance to change their fate.
How the 32 invites are split
Europe gets 18 places, the Americas nine and Asia five. Where a team starts the Major depends on its rank within its region:
- Stage 3: eight places, six for Europe and two for the Americas. Asia lost its Stage 3 invite in June, when 9z beat The MongolZ to reach the playoffs of the IEM Cologne Major.
- Stage 2: eight places for the next teams in line.
- Stage 1: the remaining 16 places, including the lower European, American and Asian invites.
Each stage is a 16-team Swiss stage, where three wins advance a team and three losses eliminate it. Eight teams go through to the next stage and meet eight new invites, before the last eight play a single-elimination bracket.
NIP’s third title in three weeks
Ninjas in Pyjamas won Stake Pulse Beat III in Stockholm on Saturday night, beating MIBR 2-1 in the grand final. It is their third trophy in under three weeks:
- 28 September: 1win Private Club Season 1, 3-1 over GamerLegion in the best-of-five final
- 3 October: ROG JOURNEY Autumn, 2-0 over Eternal Fire
- 17 October: Stake Pulse Beat III, 2-1 over MIBR
All three titles have come with Krimbo as in-game leader. The German arrived on loan from BIG at the start of September and took over from Snappi, who has since become HEROIC’s coach.
Ninjas in Pyjamas2-1
MIBRStatsMirage 13-2, Cache 17-19, Ancient 13-9
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | K-D | +/- | ADR | KAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 adamb | 60-38 | +22 | 79.8 | 80.8% |
 xKacpersky | 61-44 | +17 | 94.4 | 82.2% |
 stavn | 52-37 | +15 | 66.5 | 72.6% |
 Krimbo | 51-44 | +7 | 82.3 | 78.1% |
| sjuush | 41-44 | -3 | 62.6 | 67.1% |
| MIBR | K-D | +/- | ADR | KAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 venomzera | 50-54 | -4 | 74.8 | 65.8% |
| nqz | 42-50 | -8 | 61.5 | 61.6% |
| insani | 43-54 | -11 | 68.2 | 64.4% |
 tomaszin | 40-56 | -16 | 64.1 | 68.5% |
| LNZ | 30-54 | -24 | 59.7 | 61.6% |
NIP took MIBR’s own Mirage pick 13-2 and were 12-7 up on Cache, before venomzera and insani pulled MIBR back and won the map 19-17 in double overtime. On Ancient, NIP trailed 2-7 but gave up only two rounds in the second half to win 13-9. xKacpersky led the final with a 1.40 rating and 94.4 ADR.
The run in Stockholm was rarely comfortable. NIP did not drop a series, but needed three maps in four of their five. Against Liquid in the quarter-finals they came back from 0-8 on Nuke, and in the semi-final they edged HEROIC 13-11 on the Mirage decider.
Ninjas in Pyjamas2-1
HEROICCache 13-7, Inferno 7-13, Mirage 13-11HEROIC2-1100 ThievesDust2 7-13, Inferno 13-9, Ancient 13-4The title gave NIP 82 VRS points. HLTV’s invite simulation put their chance of a Major place at 98% after the final, up from 94% after the semi-final.
HEROIC safe, 100 Thieves in trouble
HEROIC beat 100 Thieves 2-1 in the third-place decider. VRS analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen said the win took HEROIC’s Major chance to 99.8% in his model, and that they would make it in more than 95% of outcomes even with a 0-2 at DraculaN.
For 100 Thieves, the defeat was costly. Everything now rides on FiRe Last Chance from 29 October to 1 November: a title there would put them at 92%, while a last-place finish would leave them at 5%, according to HLTV’s projections. Larsen’s model had them 20th in Europe at 26.2%, two places below the line.
Europe: who is in and who is fighting
Larsen’s updated European prediction, simulated on Saturday night after the last matches of the day, splits the region into three groups. The top eight are mathematically safe, and he considers FUT, HEROIC and NIP safe as well, with only “freak” scenarios keeping NIP and HEROIC out. FUT, in his words, just need “5 matches played”.
That leaves, in his words, “most likely 3 left to play for”.
| # | Team | Major chance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vitality | >99.9% | Safe |
| 2 |  MOUZ | >99.9% | Safe |
| 3 |  Spirit | >99.9% | Safe |
| 4 |  Aurora | >99.9% | Safe |
| 5 |  Falcons | >99.9% | Safe |
| 6 |  BETBOOM | >99.9% | Safe |
| 7 |  G2 | >99.9% | Safe |
| 8 |  Astralis | >99.9% | Safe |
| 9 | FUT | 99.8% | As good as safe |
| 10 | HEROIC | 99.7% | As good as safe |
| 11 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 98.4% | As good as safe |
| 12 |  1win | 93.6% | Quite safe |
| 13 |  PARIVISION | 82.1% | Quite safe |
| 14 |  NAVI | 81.8% | Quite safe |
| 15 |  FaZe | 77.9% | Quite safe |
| 16 |  Nemiga | 64.2% | Fighting |
| 17 |  B8 | 62.7% | Fighting |
| 18 |  magic | 41.4% | Fighting |
| 19 | Luminosity | 34.9% | Fighting |
| 20 | 100 Thieves | 26.2% | Fighting |
| 21 |  Alliance | 24.9% | Fighting |
| 22 | BIG | 23.6% | Fighting |
| 23 | Inner Circle | 20.9% | Fighting |
| 24 |  fnatic | 19.3% | Fighting |
Larsen considers 1win, PARIVISION, NAVI and FaZe “quite safe” because of their schedules, although NAVI and FaZe still need a few wins across their two events. Everyone down to around 26th can still make it, but most of those teams need an event win. With so many results depending on others, he expects the last two weeks to involve “a lot of ‘hatewatching’ of other teams”.
Nemiga control more than most: a playoff place in Bucharest would seal their Major spot, according to HLTV.
Falcons wait while Aurora pass them
Being qualified is not the same as getting the best start. Only Europe’s top six go straight to Stage 3, and that race moved on Sunday. Aurora beat Falcons 2-1 in the Thunderpick third-place decider and passed them in the VRS. Falcons, who lost their semi-final to BETBOOM on Saturday, will not play again before the cut-off. HLTV still gives them an 88.3% chance of a direct Stage 3 invite, with BETBOOM seventh and 120 points behind.
The Americas: one place left to settle
Six American teams have their place: FURIA, Legacy, 9z, MIBR, Liquid and M80. In Larsen’s prediction from early Monday, three more places are split between six teams.
| # | Team | Major chance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  DENDELE | 88.8% | Quite safe |
| 8 |  Wildcard | 79.2% | Own destiny |
| 9 |  Imperial | 46.0% | Fighting |
| 10 | NRG | 42.5% | Fighting |
| 11 |  paiN | 20.7% | Long shot |
| 12 | Fluxo | 10.7% | Long shot |
DENDELE need just one win in Bucharest, starting against FURIA, and even a 0-3 still leaves them above 75% in Larsen’s model. Wildcard control their own destiny, and two or three wins at FiRe Last Chance “should do the trick”. Imperial and NRG are the favourites for the last place, while paiN and Fluxo need big results and help from others.
Asia: settled at first glance only
No Asian team is above 95% in Larsen’s model. Larsen calls the race “quite open in many ways even if it looks settled at first glance”.
| # | Team | Major chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BC.Game | 93.1% |
| 2 |  FlyQuest | 80.6% |
| 3 |  The MongolZ | 79.7% |
| 4 |  TYLOO | 73.5% |
| 5 |  Chinggis Warriors | 73.0% |
| 6 | 5star | 48.5% |
| 7 |  Lynn Vision | 33.3% |
| 8 | NEXVOID | 17.1% |
TYLOO and The MongolZ both play in Bucharest, and Larsen says TYLOO need “a score” there. BC.Game, who were given an exception by Valve to qualify through Asia, will make it unless they perform badly. The rest will settle it at the VOID Autumn Cup in Shanghai.
Bucharest opening matches
PGL Masters Bucharest runs from 24 to 31 October with a $1,250,000 prize pool. The 16 teams play a Swiss stage, and eight go through to a single-elimination playoff bracket. The headline match of the first day is G2 against a NAVI side still looking to secure its Major place. FUT debut their new AWPer SunPayus against TYLOO, and The MongolZ play their first tier-one event with nin9.
All times are CEST, Saturday 24 October.
AuroravsThe MongolZ09:00TYLOO09:00SpiritvsBETBOOM12:00MOUZvsLiquid12:00Vitalityvs
9z15:00
LegacyvsNemiga15:00G2vsNAVI18:00
FURIAvsDENDELE18:00The rest of the run-in
Bucharest is the biggest event before the cut-off, but far from the only one. These LANs are among those that can still move the race:
- 1win Private Club Season 2, 19 to 22 October
- DraculaN Season 7, 19 to 23 October
- VOID Autumn Cup, 20 to 24 October
- Stake Ranked Episode 5, 27 to 30 October
- FiRe Last Chance, 29 October to 1 November
- HyperX RETAKE Season 13, 29 October to 1 November
- NSTLGA Texas Open, 30 October to 1 November
- GLuck Moscow Cyber Games, 31 October to 1 November
NAVI have registered for HyperX RETAKE in Lisbon, which overlaps with the Bucharest playoffs. The final day of most of these events is 1 November, one day before the invites go out.
