Stake Pulse Beat II gets underway today in Stockholm, bringing sixteen teams together in a tournament that carries direct implications for qualification to the Singapore Major. With ranking points on the line, the event serves as a critical junction for teams looking to secure their berths or salvage their position in the Valve Regional Standings (VRS). Among them are HEROIC, who are the team whose chances to qualify for the Major can swing most depending on the results in Sweden.
The competition features four groups contested sequentially over four days, starting with Group A today, followed by Group B tomorrow, and continuing through the remainder of the group stage.
The tournament can be livestreamed on kick.com.
Format and Group A opening fixtures
Each of the four groups utilizes a double-elimination format designed to send two teams to the playoff stage. The winners of the opening matches advance to an upper bracket final, where the victor earns the first playoff seed. The losing sides drop to the lower bracket semifinal, with the survivor advancing to the lower final against the loser of the upper bracket match to determine the second playoff seed.
Group A action begins with Astralis taking on Sangal in the opening match, followed by an encounter between Sashi and FOKUS.
Simulation data shows the high cost of early elimination
According to mathematical simulations conducted by VRS analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen, performance in Stockholm will significantly alter the trajectory of several teams aiming for the Singapore Major. Using a model spanning 50,000 simulated seasons, Larsen determined that finishing inside the top four serves as the statistical break-even threshold for all participants.
The stakes vary considerably across the field:
- Astralis: Currently holding an 86.6% chance to reach the Major, a tournament victory raises that figure to 96.4%, virtually guaranteeing their spot. An early exit in the 13th to 16th range reduces their probability to 67.8%.
- HEROIC: Entering the tournament with a 47.9% chance, winning the event elevates their standing to 77.3%, while a 13th to 16th place finish cuts their odds to 25.2%.
- Virtus.pro: Sitting at 17.5% before the opening round, a first-place run in Stockholm moves their qualification likelihood up to 53.8%. A runner-up finish yields a 30.1% chance, whereas failing to exit groups damages their prospects below 15%.
- 100 Thieves: Currently positioned at 12.7%, a championship performance lifts them to 36.1%, offering a clear route back into contention.
- The chasing pack: Teams such as fnatic (8.2%), JiJieHao (7.2%), and BBL (4.1%) can each push their qualification chances above the 20% to 33% range by lifting the trophy, but any result outside the top eight leaves their chances negligible.
With group play running throughout the week, the margin for error remains thin for any squad targeting a place in Singapore.
Stake Pulse Beat II schedule
All matches are bo3.
Monday, September 21:
12:00: Astralis vs Sangal
12:00: Sashi vs FOKUS
15:00: Group A Winners’ Match
15:00: Group A Elimination Match
18:00: Group A Decider Match
Tuesday, September 22
12:00: HEROIC vs Johnny Speeds
12:00: Virtus.pro vs BBL
15:00: Group B Winners’ Match
15:00: Group B Elimination Match
18:00: Group B Decider Match
Wednesday, September 23
12:00: 100 Thieves vs EAC
12:00: fnatic vs Phantom
15:00: Group C Winners’ Match
15:00: Group C Elimination Match
18:00: Group C Decider Match
Thursday, September 24
12:00: Betclic vs ASTRAL
12:00: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire
15:00: Group D Winners’ Match
15:00: Group D Elimination Match
18:00: Group D Decider Match (bo3)
Friday, September 25
10:00: Quarter-final 1
13:00: Quarter-final 2
16:00: Quarter-final 3
19:00: Quarter-final 4
Saturday, September 26
12:00: Semi-final 1
15:00: Semi-final 2
19:00: Grand Final
