With 18 European qualification berths available for the PGL Singapore Major, community analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen has published an early mathematical simulation tracking each team’s probability of securing an invite. The projection, calculated across 50,000 simulated seasons leading up to November 2, points to an uphill battle for several established organizations, including Ninjas in Pyjamas, HEROIC, and 100 Thieves.
Heavyweights in jeopardy below the cut line
In the current model, Ninjas in Pyjamas sits in 19th place, representing the first team outside the qualification threshold with a 41.2% chance to secure a spot in Singapore. Further down the board, HEROIC ranks 24th with a 23.6% qualification likelihood, while 100 Thieves faces steeper odds in 27th place at 9.0%.
Other contenders trailing the top 18 include 3DMAX (34.1%), Luminosity (32.4%), HOTU (27.9%), and EYEBALLERS (25.5%). Established names such as fnatic (3.8%) and Virtus.pro (4.1%) currently hold single-digit probabilities, reflecting a heavy reliance on deep bracket runs in their remaining schedule.
Safety at the top of the European ranking
At the upper end of the projection, top-tier teams hold commanding positions. Team Spirit, Team Falcons, MOUZ, and FUT Esports each register qualification odds above 99.9%. Team Vitality (99.8%) and G2 Esports (99.7%) follow directly behind, leaving little doubt about their trajectory toward Singapore.
Natus Vincere holds a 96.1% qualification probability despite a slow start to the season. The Ukrainian organization remains secure due to a high volume of confirmed event appearances, providing ample opportunities to collect Valve Regional Standings points before the cut-off date. Aurora (98.9%), BetBoom (90.3%), PARIVISION (87.0%), FaZe Clan (82.3%), and Astralis (80.6%) also occupy stable positions within the upper tier.
The battle on the bubble
The race around the cut-off line remains tightly contested. Inner Circle occupies the 18th and final qualifying position with a 49.7% chance, closely preceded by Alliance in 17th (56.9%), GamerLegion in 16th (68.6%), and magic in 15th (73.4%).
The simulation models the calendar through November 2 using Valve’s ranking formula across upcoming LANs, including BLAST Open, FISSURE Playground 3, StarLadder StarSeries, ESL Pro League Season 24, Thunderpick World Championship, and PGL Bucharest. FISSURE Playground 3 is expected to serve as the first major turning point for the standings, giving chasing teams an immediate opportunity to alter their trajectory.
