BIG have registered for EPIC.LAN 49, a C-Tier LAN in Kettering, England, from 30 October to 1 November. The extra event barely moves their chances of a PGL Major Singapore invite in one VRS simulation, and their season still hangs on Stake Ranked Episode 5 next week.
BIG appeared on EPIC.LAN’s team list on Friday evening, with one player added so far. It is a bring-your-own-computer event, and every player needs a £95 participant ticket. Thirty teams have signed up. The prize pool grows with the field: at the current count it is £5,000 with £2,650 for the winner, and it reaches £6,500 at the 48-team cap. EPIC.LAN says the event meets Valve’s requirements to count in the rankings, provided HLTV covers it.
The German organisation need the points. They finished third at 1win Private Club Season 2 after losing the lower bracket final to The MongolZ on Thursday, a result that, as Pley reported at the time, left them needing a near-perfect run at Stake Ranked.
The MongolZ2-1
BIGCache 4-13, Inferno 13-3, Mirage 13-7Why a C-Tier LAN
Valve’s ranking model, published on GitHub, rates teams on their own prize money, on the prize money of the teams they beat and how many teams those opponents have beaten, and on their ten best LAN wins, alongside head-to-head results. The opponent factors are scaled by each event’s prize pool. The LAN factor is not: a recent win on LAN counts the same in Kettering as anywhere else.
That is the only real gain on offer, according to VRS analyst Udknud. He wrote that EPIC.LAN “has low event weight and (very) low ranked opposition, so there are only the LAN win points to gain from wins there.”
Stake Ranked still decides it
The calendar limits the option. Stake Ranked Episode 5 runs from 27 to 30 October with $100,000 on the line, and BIG open against magic on . The lower bracket final is on Thursday evening, while the consolation final, which decides the last grand final spot, and the grand final itself are on Friday, the day EPIC.LAN’s group stage begins. Udknud reads that as only a fourth place or worse leaving BIG free to travel to England.
| Stake Ranked finish | BIG’s Major chance |
|---|---|
| Winner | 99.0% |
| 2nd | 69.0% |
| 3rd | 22.0% |
| 4th, then EPIC.LAN | 22.2% |
| 5th to 6th | 1.8% |
Without EPIC.LAN, fourth place would leave BIG at 3%. Even winning the Kettering event only lifts that to 28% at best in his model. He concluded that “this EPIC LAN signup doesn’t really change anything for BIG.”
HLTV’s Major simulator is less generous. On Saturday morning it had BIG at 21.5%, 19th in its European projection with 18 places available. Reaching the Stake Ranked final would lift them to 79%, while any other finish leaves them at 5%. Valve’s cut-off for the invites is 2 November.
