With the IEM Cologne Major 2026 just weeks away, prediction platforms are adjusting their numbers following the conclusion of IEM Atlanta and PGL Astana. Data from Polymarket shows a recent change in expectations for the heavy favorites, though the overall hierarchy at the top of the competitive circuit remains intact.
Vitality sees a drop but holds the favorite status
Despite a recent dip in form, Vitality is still considered the most likely winner of the upcoming Major, currently holding a 46% probability on Polymarket. This number represents an 11% decrease over the last week. The drop directly follows the team’s exit at IEM Atlanta 2026, where they lost to Natus Vincere in the Quarter-Finals and dropped an earlier group stage match to BetBoom.
Prior to Atlanta, the French organization had been practically unbeatable in playoff settings, a run highlighted by their Grand Slam victory in Rio earlier this year. Several players from the roster have stated that IEM Atlanta was not a primary focus, treating the event strictly as preparation for Cologne. The team will enter the Major directly in Stage 3 on June 11, giving them almost a full month of dedicated practice time before their first official match.
Team Spirit surges following PGL Astana victory
While Vitality dropped in the predictions, Team Spirit experienced a 9% increase, making them the clear second favorite at 17%. The squad has had a difficult run throughout the 2026 season but regained momentum at PGL Astana. They secured the tournament trophy this Sunday with a convincing 3-0 sweep against Falcons in the Grand Final.
The weekend’s results have also positively impacted the prediction standing of both Natus Vincere and Falcons. Natus Vincere climbed 4% to reach an 11% probability following their victory over Vitality in Atlanta and their win in the Grand Final. Falcons also gained 4%, settling just behind at 10% after their deep run to the finals in Astana. Further down the prediction list, FURIA sits at 4%, while MOUZ, PARIVISION, and FUT all trail at 2%.
