With the April 6 cut-off date for the IEM Cologne Major 2026 rapidly approaching, every top-tier tournament matters more than ever. The Valve Regional Standings (VRS) have entirely changed how teams secure their spots, removing the volatility of open qualifiers and rewarding sustained excellence.
To give our readers on Pley.gg the most accurate picture of the current Major race, we were allowed to use the work of data analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2), who has run the numbers to predict exactly who is on track to book their tickets to Germany.
Understanding the VRS Math
Before diving into the predictions, it is important to understand how Valve calculates these crucial standings. The VRS points are based on four key metrics from the last six months of competitive play:
- Bounty Offered: Calculated based on a team’s recent prize money winnings.
- Bounty Collected: Rewards teams for securing victories against high ranked opponents.
- Opponent Network: Measures a team’s success against opponents who are consistently beating other strong teams.
- LAN Wins: Tracks the 10 most recent LAN match victories, with older results decaying in value after a month.
Europe: The Heavyweights Lock In
The European gauntlet is as brutal as ever, but several powerhouses have effectively guaranteed their spots. The cut-off line remains razor thin, with HOTU clinging to the final predicted qualification spot while being directly hunted by HEROIC.
| Predicted to Qualify | Not Predicted to Qualify |
| Team Vitality | HEROIC |
| PARIVISION | Ninjas in Pyjamas |
| Team Falcons | B8 |
| MOUZ | Team Liquid |
| Team Spirit | BIG |
| Aurora Gaming | BC.Game Esports |
| Natus Vincere | Illwill |
| G2 Esports | SINNERS Esports |
| Astralis | Alliance |
| GamerLegion | Fnatic |
| FUT Esports | K27 |
| FaZe Clan | |
| Monte | |
| Gentle Mates | |
| BetBoom Team | |
| 3DMAX | |
| HOTU |
Americas: Chaos at the Cut-off
The Americas region presents a slightly more volatile picture outside of the absolute top tier. FURIA leads the pack, closely followed by NRG and MIBR. Further down the list, the race is wide open, with Legacy currently holding the final predicted spot but facing heavy dependence on upcoming LAN attendance to maximize their points.
| Predicted to Qualify | Not Predicted to Qualify |
| FURIA | RED Canids |
| NRG | Gaimin Gladiators |
| MIBR | Imperial Esports |
| 9z Team | ODDIK |
| Sharks Esports | ShindeN |
| Passion UA | Marsborne |
| M80 | Fluxo W7M |
| PaiN Gaming | |
| BESTIA | |
| Legacy |
Ongoing Tournaments
- Draculan Season 5: HEROIC are in the Upper Final. If qualified, they play the Grand Final on Saturday.
Upcoming Tournaments
- ESL Pro League Season 23: The first two stages are online, while the Finals are played as a LAN in Sweden. It would be very important for the likes of Team Liquid, HEROIC, Passion UA, M80, and 3DMAX to advance to the Finals and get LAN victories there as well. B8 enters the tournament in Stage 2, and would also greatly benefit from advancing.
- BLAST Open Rotterdam: The final top-tier tournament before the cut-off.
