With the beloved map Cache confirmed to make its long-awaited return to the Counter-Strike Active Duty map pool, the community is bracing for the inevitable: someone has to go. According to betting markets and recent professional play statistics, Overpass is currently the prime candidate to face the chopping block.
The bettors’ verdict: Overpass is out
To gauge community sentiment, prediction markets like Polymarket offer a glimpse into where people are putting their money. When assessing these markets, the “Buy Yes” asking price (the implied probability) and the total trading volume give the most accurate picture of active sentiment.
Here is how the market currently prices the likelihood of each map being removed by June 30:
| Map | Implied Probability (“Buy Yes” Price) | Total Trading Volume |
| Overpass | 23.0% (23.0¢) | $489,622 |
| Inferno | 19.0% (19.0¢) | $72,602 |
| Ancient* | 15.0% (15.0¢) | $784 |
| Dust 2 | 14.0% (14.0¢) | $72,434 |
| Nuke | 12.0% (12.0¢) | $70,996 |
| Mirage | 12.0% (12.0¢) | $2,804 |
*Note: Ancient has an incredibly low trading volume, meaning its 15% price tag is highly illiquid and an inaccurate reflection of active market sentiment.
Overpass is the clear favorite. Not only does it have the highest buy-in price at 23¢, but it commands a massive $489,622 in trading volume, dwarfing the rest of the options combined.
What the pros are playing (2026 Stats)
Betting odds only tell half the story; we also have to look at what the best teams in the world are actually playing. The map distribution from Big Events in 2026 provides a stark look at the current meta:
- Mirage: 94
- Dust 2: 88
- Inferno: 56
- Ancient: 48
- Nuke: 43
- Overpass: 41
- Anubis: 19
(Note: Anubis has the lowest pick rate, largely due to teams historically taking time to adjust to it, though its turbulent history of being rotated in and out likely contributes to its low numbers).
Outside of Anubis, Overpass sits last in professional play at major events this year, with a measly 41 picks. Meanwhile, mainstays like Mirage and Dust 2 continue to dominate the scene with 94 and 88 plays, respectively, keeping them safe from Valve’s chopping block.
Who will miss Overpass the most?
If Valve does pull the plug on Overpass, the impact won’t be felt equally across the top tier of Counter-Strike. Looking at the 2026 performance of the current Top 10 teams on the map, its removal creates distinct winners and losers in the veto process.
The Losers (Teams who will miss it):
- Vitality: Nobody will mourn Overpass more than Vitality. They boast an absurd 12-1 record on the map this year. Removing it takes away a near-guaranteed win from their playbook.
- Astralis: Overpass has been an absolute workhorse for the Danes. They have played it an exhaustive 20 times, boasting a solid 13-7 record. Losing their most actively tested battleground will force a major shift in their map pool.
The Winners (Teams who will gladly wave goodbye):
- NAVI & Falcons: Both of these juggernauts have played 0 maps on Overpass this year, using it as their permanent ban. If Valve removes it, NAVI and Falcons effectively gain a “free” ban in the veto phase, giving them a massive strategic advantage to punish opponents’ map pools.
- FURIA & PARIVISION: FURIA (3-6 record) and PARIVISION (1-4 record) have actively struggled on the map. They will undoubtedly welcome its replacement.
(Other top 10 teams like Aurora [7-7], FUT [6-6], Spirit [5-2], and The MongolZ [2-2] have seen mixed or neutral results on the map).
When will it happen?
The most likely scenario is that Cache will be introduced to the map pool after the Cologne Major. The question is whether it will happen before or after the 30th of June.
