The qualification race for the upcoming Counter-Strike 2 Major in Budapest is heating up, and with ESL Pro League now underway, fans are closely watching how results will impact the Valve Regional Standings (VRS). On X, Udknud (Jesper Larsen), a self-described “VRS nerd,” broke down exactly what’s at stake in Stage 1 of ESL Pro League, and why this is the last big chance for some teams before the October 6 cutoff.
How VRS works
Valve’s VRS system ranks teams within their regions (Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific) based on performance across select tournaments leading up to a Major. The higher the placement and the stronger the opponents defeated, the more points a team earns. Only events sanctioned in Valve’s calendar count, and each region is allocated a certain number of qualification slots.
With the cutoff date set for October 6, only matches played before that day matter for Budapest Major invites. This makes ESL Pro League Stage 1 absolutely crucial, since matches from the main stage (starting October 4) fall too late to be included.
It’s also not just EPL that matters: results from other ongoing events like the LanDaLan Final are just as decisive. For example, if BetBoom wins that event, the qualification threshold for European teams will rise, forcing fringe contenders to earn more points to secure their place.
Who can qualify through EPL Stage 1?
According to Udknud’s breakdown, several teams are still in the running:
- GamerLegion: Needs just one win to qualify safely. Even at 0-3 there’s a slim chance, but it’s risky. Importantly, Stage 1 matches don’t offer enough value for them to push into Stage 2.
- B8: Must advance to feel secure. Two wins could be enough, but anything less leaves them vulnerable.
- Heroic: Same as B8, Heroic likely needs at least two wins and ideally advancement to stay safe. If both end up with the same record, B8 projects slightly higher.
- Fluxo (Americas): Needs at least two wins to stay alive in the Americas race.
On the other side, ENCE, Inner Circle, HOTU, Rooster, and likely Gentle Mates are out of contention. Gentle Mates would need an unrealistic 3-0 plus other results falling their way.
Impact on Major invites
Beyond qualification, EPL Stage 1 is also critical for determining which teams receive direct invites to later Major stages.
- Europe:
- G2: Currently holding a Stage 3 invite, but can’t afford losses to lower-ranked teams.
- Astralis: Needs one win to lock a Stage 2 invite.
- 3DMAX: Likely must advance to hold onto their Stage 2 spot, especially if Liquid overtakes FaZe.
- Americas:
- Legacy, NRG, and M80 are fighting for two Stage 2 invites. Passion UA is also in the mix through other events, making this a tight four-way race. M80 starts at a disadvantage, needing at least one win more than the others.
- FURIA: Already safe with a Stage 3 invite regardless of EPL.
The bigger picture
With just over a week to go before the cutoff, every map in EPL Stage 1 carries significant weight. Teams like GamerLegion and Heroic are playing not only for wins but for survival in the Major race, while established names like G2 and Astralis are fighting to secure favorable starting positions once Budapest begins.
As Udknud puts it, the window for changes is closing fast. Once October 6 arrives, the standings freeze, and the dream of making the Major will be over for teams who fall short in this final sprint.
